Trident White Paper on Monday

Thursday's Cabinet meeting agreed that the White Paper relating to Trident will be published on Monday. The Defence Secretary, Des Browne, and Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett have been speaking to Cabinet colleagues in detail and initial discussions about the decision have been had. We are told that the White Paper will be the result of a collective decision made by Cabinet.

Since 1997, the Government's approach has been based around maintaining the minimum effective independent deterrent, setting an example where possible by reducing Britain's arsenal of weapons — down by 30% since 1997, and working towards disarmament through multilateral institutions.

The current deterrent system is based on Trident D5 ballistic missiles in Vanguard submarines. The Vanguard submarines will reach the end of operational service from the early 2020s, even if their lives are extended. If Britain wants to consider the option of a replacement submarine, then based on Government estimates of the long time from concept phase to coming into service, Parliament needs to take a decision now.

This will be a controversial argument. The Government will argue that the strategic context has changed from the Cold War, but that the fundamental logic of nuclear deterrence has not — that nuclear weapons pose a uniquely terrible threat because of their destructive power; that conventional capabilities cannot pose the same threat, so cannot have the same deterrent effect; that nuclear weapons remain an essential part of our capability for deterring any nuclear-armed opponents.

I believe that the strategic context has changed from the Cold War to such a degree that it is difficult to make the argument for renewing Trident, but I am eager to hear the views of my constituents. Beginning on Monday, we can start the debate about the best way forward in this controversial area of policy.